Newcastle Seek to Extend Winning Run Against Bournemouth

Match Preview

Newcastle United welcome Bournemouth AFC to St James' Park on 18 January 2025 in the English Premier League. Newcastle sit fifth in the table with 35 points from 20 matches, while Bournemouth are just behind in seventh place with 33 points. Both teams are in good form, making this fixture significant for their ambitions this season.
Newcastle have shown strong performances recently, securing victories against Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United. Their 2-1 win over Tottenham featured goals from Anthony Gordon and Alexander Isak, demonstrating their attacking capabilities. Bournemouth have also impressed, with a notable 3-0 win over Manchester United and a 4-2 victory against Wolves.
Historically, matches between these teams have been closely contested. In their last 14 encounters, both Newcastle and Bournemouth have secured five wins each, with six matches ending in draws. These fixtures often see goals from both sides, with 71% of recent meetings featuring both teams scoring.

Team Analysis

Newcastle United have been effective in attack, averaging 1.7 goals per game. They maintain an average possession of 50%, highlighting a balanced approach between offence and defence. At home, they have won five out of nine matches, scoring 15 goals and conceding eight.
Defensively, Newcastle concede 1.1 goals per match and make an average of 19.6 clearances per game. Their passing accuracy stands at 83.8%, with an average of 459 passes per game. They average 14.0 shots per match, with 4.6 on target, indicating a solid conversion rate.
Bournemouth AFC average 1.5 goals per game, with an aggressive approach reflected in their 16.7 shots per match and 5.7 on target. They have an average possession of 45.9%. Away from home, Bournemouth have won four of their ten matches, scoring 18 goals and conceding 16.

Defensively, Bournemouth concede 1.15 goals per game and make 24.1 clearances per match, suggesting they often absorb pressure and rely on counter-attacks. Their passing accuracy averages 79.2% from 384.7 passes per game. Bournemouth's ability to capitalize on opponents' mistakes has been evident in recent matches.
Set-pieces could play a crucial role, as Bournemouth's Justin Kluivert has been proficient from penalties, scoring five this season. Newcastle will need to be cautious in defence to avoid conceding fouls in dangerous areas.

Player Analysis

Newcastle may face challenges in attack, with key striker Alexander Isak listed as doubtful due to a groin injury. Callum Wilson is also unavailable due to a thigh injury. The responsibility may fall on Anthony Gordon and Jacob Murphy to lead the line.
Anthony Gordon has been in good form, contributing goals in recent matches, including the equalizer against Tottenham Hotspur. Jacob Murphy has been instrumental in creating chances for Newcastle, with a 'Max Assists per 90' statistic of 3.154, highlighting his creativity and importance to the team's attacking play.
In midfield, Bruno Guimarães plays a vital role in orchestrating play and providing support in both attack and defence. His performances have been pivotal in Newcastle's recent successes, contributing to their control of possession and distribution.

Bournemouth are dealing with injuries to forwards Evanilson and Enes Unal, potentially impacting their attacking options. Justin Kluivert will be a key player to watch, having demonstrated his goal-scoring ability, particularly from the penalty spot. His experience and proficiency in high-pressure situations can influence the match.
Dango Ouattara has also been a standout performer for Bournemouth, contributing with goals and assists. His pace and skill could pose challenges for Newcastle's defence. Bournemouth may rely on his ability to exploit spaces and create opportunities.
With several key players missing on both sides, squad depth and tactical adjustments by the managers could be decisive. Eddie Howe and Andoni Iraola will need to adapt their strategies to make the most of the available players. Young talents and fringe players may have the chance to step up and make an impact in this important fixture.

Both teams have disciplinary records to consider, with Newcastle averaging 2.15 yellow cards per game and Bournemouth averaging 2.4. Discipline on the pitch could be a factor, especially in a match where set-pieces might determine the outcome.
The outcome of this match could have significant implications for both teams' positions in the league. A win for Newcastle would strengthen their hold on a top-five spot, while a victory for Bournemouth could see them leapfrog their opponents in the standings. The stage is set for a competitive match at St James' Park.

Bournemouth to Win at 1.67 Odds

Bournemouth have shown strong form on the road, winning 40% of their away matches this season. They average 1.8 goals per away game, demonstrating their effectiveness in attack.
Newcastle face key absences in attack, with both Alexander Isak and Callum Wilson unavailable due to injuries.
This reduces Newcastle's goal threat significantly. Bournemouth's recent 3-0 victory over Manchester United showcases their capability to overcome strong opponents.
Considering Newcastle's diminished attacking options, Bournemouth have a solid chance to secure an away win.

Both Teams Not to Score at 2.55 Odds

Newcastle United have a strong defensive record at home, conceding just 0.9 goals per game. In 40% of their home matches, both teams did not score. With their main strikers absent, Newcastle may struggle to find the net.
Bournemouth have kept clean sheets in some of their recent away games, conceding 1.15 goals per match on average.
The combination of Newcastle's attacking injuries and Bournemouth's capable defence suggests a scenario where both teams do not score.

Under 2.5 Goals at 3.1 Odds

Half of the last six meetings between Newcastle and Bournemouth at St James' Park have ended with under 2.5 goals.
Newcastle's average home goals scored stands at 1.6, but injuries to key forwards may reduce their scoring ability.
Bournemouth's defence has been resilient away from home. The likelihood of a tight match with fewer than three goals is supported by both teams' recent statistics.

Bet Builder: Bournemouth to Win, Both Teams Not to Score, Under 2.5 Goals at Combined Odds of 13.2

Combining these three bets provides a substantial return. A £10 stake could return £132.
This bet anticipates a Bournemouth victory in a low-scoring match where Newcastle fail to score due to their attacking injuries, aligning all three outcomes for an enhanced return.