High-Flying Nottingham Forest Face Bottom-Placed Southampton

Match Preview

Nottingham Forest welcome Southampton to the City Ground in a Premier League encounter that highlights the contrasting trajectories of the two clubs this season. Forest have been one of the standout teams, sitting comfortably in third place with 40 points from 20 matches. Their performances have been characterised by a blend of solid defending and effective attacking play.
Their recent 1-1 draw against Liverpool showcased their resilience and ability to compete with top sides. Over their last eight matches, Forest have recorded seven wins and a draw, underlining their excellent form. At home, they have been formidable, losing only twice in nine matches and scoring 11 goals.
Southampton, on the other hand, are enduring a difficult campaign. Rooted to the bottom of the table with just six points, they have won only once all season. Their away form is particularly concerning, with eight losses and only two draws in ten matches. Scoring goals has been a significant issue, with only five goals scored away from home.
This match presents Nottingham Forest with an opportunity to consolidate their top-three position, while Southampton will view it as a chance to begin a turnaround in fortunes. However, given the form and statistics, Forest will be strong favourites to claim all three points.

Team Analysis

Nottingham Forest's success this season can be attributed to their balanced team performance. They have a solid defensive record, conceding just 19 goals in 20 matches, averaging 0.9 goals against per game. Their defence is disciplined, averaging 9.6 interceptions and 18.7 tackles per match. The team's work rate is evident with an average of 98.8 duels per game, winning more than half of them.
Offensively, Forest average 12.6 shots per game, with 4.6 on target, indicating a reasonable conversion rate. Their key passes per game stand at 9.0, highlighting their creative ability. Despite having an average ball possession of 39.0%, they are efficient in transition and make effective use of their time on the ball.
Southampton's statistics portray a team struggling at both ends of the pitch. They concede an average of 2.2 goals per game, the highest in the league. Despite having a higher average possession of 52.7% and completing 495.1 passes per game, they have been unable to translate this into meaningful attacking opportunities, averaging only 0.6 goals per game.
Their defence also faces issues, with the team receiving an average of 2.9 yellow cards per match, suggesting disciplinary problems. They win 46.7 duels per game but lose possession 109.0 times on average, indicating difficulties in retaining the ball under pressure.

Player Analysis

Nottingham Forest's attacking midfielders have been crucial to their success. Morgan Gibbs-White, with his creativity and vision, orchestrates much of their forward play. He contributes significantly with key passes, enhancing the team's chances created. Anthony Elanga brings pace and directness on the wing, posing a threat to opposing full-backs. Callum Hudson-Odoi, on the opposite flank, adds flair and the ability to beat defenders in one-on-one situations.
Chris Wood leads the line with his aerial ability and finishing skills. His physical presence can unsettle defences, and he has been effective in link-up play. In midfield, the absence of Ibrahim Sangare due to injury and Ryan Yates through suspension will be a challenge. Nicolas Dominguez will need to step up, possibly alongside Orel Mangala or Cheikhou Kouyaté, to maintain midfield stability.
Defensively, Willy Boly and Murillo have formed a reliable partnership, contributing to Forest's strong defensive record. Full-backs Neco Williams and Ola Aina are expected to support both defensively and offensively, providing width and overlapping runs.
Southampton's attack relies heavily on Ben Brereton Diaz, who needs to capitalise on any opportunities that come his way. Stuart Armstrong's experience and creativity are vital, and his ability to find pockets of space could be key. In midfield, Flynn Downes and Will Smallbone will be tasked with both protecting the defence and supporting the attack.
Defensive absences, such as Jack Stephens due to injury, may force adjustments in their backline. The potential inclusion of Duje Caleta-Car could add experience but may require adjustments to team chemistry. Goalkeeper Alex McCarthy will need to be at his best, as he is likely to face a significant number of shots.
The possible return of Ross Stewart from injury could provide Southampton with a boost, but his match fitness remains uncertain. Doubts over Kamaldeen Sulemana and Adam Lallana may also impact their options from the bench.

Expected Lineup

Nottingham Forest are expected to maintain their 4-2-3-1 formation. Matz Sels will likely start in goal. The defence should feature Neco Williams at right-back, Willy Boly and Murillo in central defence, and Ola Aina at left-back. With Sangare injured and Yates suspended, the midfield pivot may include Nicolas Dominguez alongside Orel Mangala or Cheikhou Kouyaté, providing balance between defence and attack.
The attacking trio behind the striker is expected to be Anthony Elanga on the right wing, Morgan Gibbs-White in the central role, and Callum Hudson-Odoi on the left wing. This trio offers a mix of pace, creativity, and dribbling skills. Chris Wood is set to lead the line upfront, using his physicality and finishing ability to threaten Southampton's defence.
Southampton may line up in a 3-5-2 formation. Alex McCarthy is expected to be in goal, with the defensive trio possibly including Taylor Harwood-Bellis, Jan Bednarek, and Duje Caleta-Car. The wing-backs are likely to be Yuta Sugawara on the right and Kyle Walker-Peters on the left, both of whom can contribute to both defence and attack.
The central midfield may comprise Flynn Downes, Will Smallbone, and Joe Aribo, tasked with controlling possession and supporting both defence and attack. Upfront, Ben Brereton Diaz may be partnered with Stuart Armstrong, looking to exploit any gaps in the Forest defence.

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Bet 1: Both Teams to Score - No (1.74)

Nottingham Forest have established a strong defensive record this season, particularly at the City Ground. They have conceded just seven goals in nine home matches, averaging less than one goal against per game. This solid defensive performance has been a cornerstone of their success, with centre-backs Willy Boly and Murillo forming a reliable partnership.
Southampton have struggled offensively, especially away from home. They have scored only five goals in ten away fixtures, averaging 0.5 goals per game. This makes them the lowest-scoring away side in the league. Their difficulties in creating and converting chances are evident, with an average of 2.9 shots on target per game.
Considering Forest's strong home defense and Southampton's lack of attacking threat on their travels, it is plausible that Southampton will find it hard to break through. The likelihood of both teams not scoring appears high, making this a sensible bet.

Bet 2: Nottingham Forest to Win (1.46)

Nottingham Forest are enjoying an impressive season, currently sitting third in the Premier League with 40 points from 20 matches. Their home form is notable, with five wins, two draws, and only two losses at the City Ground. They have scored 11 goals at home, demonstrating effectiveness in securing results.
In contrast, Southampton are at the bottom of the table with just six points. Their away record is particularly poor, with eight losses and two draws in ten matches. They have failed to win away from home, highlighting their struggles on the road. Defensively, they have conceded 17 goals away, averaging 1.7 goals against per game.
The disparity in form and confidence between the two teams suggests that Nottingham Forest are well-placed to secure a victory. Their balanced team performance and home advantage increase the likelihood of them taking all three points.

Bet 3: Anthony Elanga to Score First (8.13)

Anthony Elanga has been a bright spark in Nottingham Forest's attack this season. Operating on the wing, his pace and ability to get behind defences make him a constant threat. Elanga has contributed crucial goals, including the decisive strike in Forest's 1-0 win over Tottenham Hotspur.
With Southampton's defence conceding an average of 2.2 goals per game, Elanga will have opportunities to exploit any gaps. His understanding with teammates like Morgan Gibbs-White and Callum Hudson-Odoi enhances his goal-scoring potential. Given his form and the likelihood of Forest dominating play, Elanga is a strong candidate to open the scoring.

Bet Builder: Combined Odds of 20.64

This Bet Builder combines the three selections for increased returns:

• Both Teams to Score - No (1.74)
• Nottingham Forest to Win (1.46)
• Anthony Elanga to Score First (8.13)

Placing a £10 bet on these combined selections at odds of 20.64 could return £206.40 if successful.